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ABS 2021 Census · Updated 21 May 2026
Carnes Hill is an outer-metropolitan suburb of Sydney, Australia, with a population of approximately 3,332, making it a boutique locality. Located approximately 34 km from the Sydney CBD, Carnes Hill is a outer metro area in New South Wales. The median household income is $136,760 per year.
Carnes Hill benefits from a high-income resident base, supporting premium property pricing. While further from the city, improving transport links could boost future demand.
Official Australia Post postcode for Carnes Hill. A postcode may cover multiple suburbs.
Australia Post Postcode Finder →Usual resident population at the most recent census.
Weekly median rent for occupied homes. Live rental data integration coming soon.
Annual median household income (before tax) across all households.
Straight-line distance from the suburb centroid to the nearest capital city CBD. Actual driving distance will be longer.
Estimated 1 school within or near this suburb.
Find schools near Carnes Hill on My School →Estimated 1 park and green spaces near this suburb.
Monthly median mortgage repayment for households currently paying off a mortgage.
Proportion of separate houses versus units, townhouses, and other home types. Useful for investors assessing rental demand mix.
Carnes Hill is a smaller community of 3,332 — about 63% of the New South Wales suburb median (5,325) — so investors should factor in the narrower buyer pool and longer average time-on-market. Median household income of $136,760/year runs 40% above the New South Wales suburb median of $97,552, indicating strong purchasing power and the type of demographic profile that tends to sustain premium property prices through market cycles. Median weekly rent of $600 equates to $2,600/month — about 96% of the median mortgage repayment of $2,700/month — meaning rental income covers most of a typical owner's repayment and this is a genuine cash-flow suburb before tax benefits. At 34 km from Sydney, Carnes Hill is an outer-metro location where buyers are typically trading commute time for floor space and a lower entry price. Separate houses make up 95% of dwellings — 19 percentage points above the New South Wales median of 76% — pointing to a family-oriented, land-rich market where value is concentrated in the underlying block.
This suburb suits long-term investors due to steady population growth and affordable entry prices. Look for established streets close to schools and shops rather than raw new-estate land. Local rents consume roughly 23% of household income — a useful sanity check on tenant affordability.
How Carnes Hill stacks up against the median of all New South Wales suburbs in our dataset. Positive values mean Carnes Hill sits above the state median; negative means below.
| Metric | Carnes Hill | NSW median | Δ vs state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 3,332 | 5,325 | -37% |
| Median household income | $136,760/yr | $97,552/yr | +40% |
| Median rent (weekly) | $600 | $430 | +40% |
| Median mortgage (monthly) | $2,700 | $2,167 | +25% |
| Distance to CBD | 34 km | 45 km | -24% |
| Separate houses | 95% | 76% | +19pp |
Pre-inspection briefing for Carnes Hill — every item is derived from public datasets, with full citations in our data sources page.
Moderate buy-and-hold potential: Carnes Hill's 3,332-person market and $136,760 median household income work for investors who are selective on street location and property quality rather than counting on a suburb-wide rerating.
Strong rental coverage: $600/week (~$2,600/month) covers 96% of the $2,700/month median mortgage repayment, so the shortfall sits at just $100/month. Investors targeting positive cash flow should shortlist this suburb.
With 95% houses in a 3,332-person market, renovation margins depend on individual street and aspect rather than any suburb-wide story — do comparable-sales analysis before committing capital.
Run the numbers on a Carnes Hill property
Scenario comparison, cash flow analysis, tax modelling, and PDF export — all in one place.
Create free account →Capital-growth expectations for Carnes Hill are modest for 2026 — incomes 40% above the NSW median of $97,552 and a population of 3,332 suggest gains will lag headline metro markets. Rental coverage runs at ~96% of the typical mortgage ($2,600/month rent vs $2,700/month repayment), keeping cash flow in positive or near-neutral territory. The EquitySight investment score of 75/100 places Carnes Hill in the upper-middle tier of Australian suburbs we profile, and overall investor sentiment is constructive heading into the second half of 2026.
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Carnes Hill scores 75/100 on our EquitySight investment framework — a good rating. That score is driven by a population of 3,332, median household income of $136,760/year and median weekly rent of $600. Whether it fits your portfolio depends on whether you are targeting cash flow, capital growth, or a value-add renovation — all three are scored with suburb-specific numbers elsewhere on this page.
The main demand drivers in Carnes Hill are an above-state-median household income of $136,760/year, a dwelling mix that is 95% separate houses, roughly 1 schools and 1 parks within the catchment. Together these shape both owner-occupier and tenant demand and are the factors we weight most heavily in the suburb's investment score.
Carnes Hill has a usual resident population of approximately 3,332, compared with a New South Wales suburb median of 5,325 — placing it in the lower half of the state's suburbs by size. Population is the clearest proxy for market depth: more residents mean more transactions and typically a shorter average days-on-market on resale.
Carnes Hill sits 34 km straight-line from the Sydney CBD. This is an outer-metro location; local employment and infrastructure announcements tend to move prices more than CBD connectivity alone.
The most recent census recorded a median weekly rent of $600 in Carnes Hill, equating to approximately $31,200/year in gross rental income (state median $430/week). Market rents have typically drifted above the recorded figure — verify against current listings on realestate.com.au and Domain before making an offer.
The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carnes Hill is $2,700, or approximately $32,400/year (vs $2,167/month state median). Stress-test your own borrowing at rates 1–2 percentage points above today's to make sure you can still service the loan through an RBA tightening cycle.
A median weekly rent of $600 works out to $2,600/month, covering 96% of the median mortgage repayment of $2,700/month. That leaves a $100/month shortfall (around $1,200/year before tax benefits), so a typical owner-occupier-priced property here is negatively geared. Actual cash flow depends on your deposit, loan terms, ownership costs and marginal tax rate — run the full numbers in our rental yield calculator.
The main risks are a thin buyer pool (3,332 residents), interest-rate sensitivity on the $2,700 median mortgage, the broader New South Wales market cycle. Each of these is covered in the Risk Factors section above with suburb-specific numbers rather than generic warnings.
Every number on this page comes from the ABS 2021 Census of Population and Housing, Australia Post postcode reference data, and OpenStreetMap amenity tiles. The investment score, strategy verdicts, and comparison table are computed deterministically from those inputs — no opinion, no estimation. See our full methodology and the data sources and licences for the formulas we use.