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ABS 2021 Census · Updated 21 May 2026
Fern Bay is a regional centre in New South Wales, Australia, with a population of approximately 4,046, making it a boutique locality. Located approximately 125 km from the Sydney CBD, Fern Bay is a regional area in New South Wales. The median household income is $74,620 per year.
Moderate income levels in Fern Bay indicate steady rental demand from working households. As a regional location, growth prospects depend on local economic conditions and infrastructure investment.
Official Australia Post postcode for Fern Bay. A postcode may cover multiple suburbs.
Australia Post Postcode Finder →Usual resident population at the most recent census.
Weekly median rent for occupied homes. Live rental data integration coming soon.
Annual median household income (before tax) across all households.
Straight-line distance from the suburb centroid to the nearest capital city CBD. Actual driving distance will be longer.
Estimated 1 school within or near this suburb.
Find schools near Fern Bay on My School →Estimated 2 parks and green spaces near this suburb.
Monthly median mortgage repayment for households currently paying off a mortgage.
Proportion of separate houses versus units, townhouses, and other home types. Useful for investors assessing rental demand mix.
Fern Bay is a smaller community of 4,046 — about 76% of the New South Wales suburb median (5,325) — so investors should factor in the narrower buyer pool and longer average time-on-market. Fern Bay's median household income of $74,620/year is 24% below the New South Wales suburb median ($97,552) — this is an affordability play where returns lean on yield and patient capital growth rather than demographic premium. Median weekly rent of $510 equates to $2,210/month — about 96% of the median mortgage repayment of $2,299/month — meaning rental income covers most of a typical owner's repayment and this is a genuine cash-flow suburb before tax benefits. Fern Bay is 125 km from Sydney, so the local market tracks regional employment and lifestyle drivers more than CBD-driven commuter demand. Separate houses make up 93% of dwellings — 17 percentage points above the New South Wales median of 76% — pointing to a family-oriented, land-rich market where value is concentrated in the underlying block.
This suburb suits yield-focused investors who are comfortable with lower liquidity. Employment concentration and local population trends matter more here than in metro markets. Local rents consume roughly 36% of household income — a useful sanity check on tenant affordability.
How Fern Bay stacks up against the median of all New South Wales suburbs in our dataset. Positive values mean Fern Bay sits above the state median; negative means below.
| Metric | Fern Bay | NSW median | Δ vs state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 4,046 | 5,325 | -24% |
| Median household income | $74,620/yr | $97,552/yr | -24% |
| Median rent (weekly) | $510 | $430 | +19% |
| Median mortgage (monthly) | $2,299 | $2,167 | +6% |
| Distance to CBD | 125 km | 45 km | +178% |
| Separate houses | 93% | 76% | +17pp |
Pre-inspection briefing for Fern Bay — every item is derived from public datasets, with full citations in our data sources page.
Limited buy-and-hold upside: household incomes 24% below the NSW median ($74,620 vs $97,552) means liquidity is thin and capital growth tends to lag the wider New South Wales market over full cycles.
Strong rental coverage: $510/week (~$2,210/month) covers 96% of the $2,299/month median mortgage repayment, so the shortfall sits at just $89/month. Investors targeting positive cash flow should shortlist this suburb.
With 93% houses in a 4,046-person market, renovation margins depend on individual street and aspect rather than any suburb-wide story — do comparable-sales analysis before committing capital.
Run the numbers on a Fern Bay property
Scenario comparison, cash flow analysis, tax modelling, and PDF export — all in one place.
Create free account →Capital-growth expectations for Fern Bay are modest for 2026 — incomes 24% below the NSW median of $97,552 and a population of 4,046 suggest gains will lag headline metro markets. Rental coverage runs at ~96% of the typical mortgage ($2,210/month rent vs $2,299/month repayment), keeping cash flow in positive or near-neutral territory. The EquitySight investment score of 46/100 places Fern Bay in the mid tier of Australian suburbs we profile, and overall investor sentiment is cautious heading into the second half of 2026.
Lived in Fern Bay? Help other investors with an honest 100-word review. Sign-in required; all reviews are manually moderated before they appear.
Fern Bay scores 46/100 on our EquitySight investment framework — a moderate rating. That score is driven by a population of 4,046, median household income of $74,620/year and median weekly rent of $510. Whether it fits your portfolio depends on whether you are targeting cash flow, capital growth, or a value-add renovation — all three are scored with suburb-specific numbers elsewhere on this page.
The main demand drivers in Fern Bay are a median household income of $74,620/year, a dwelling mix that is 93% separate houses, roughly 1 schools and 2 parks within the catchment. Together these shape both owner-occupier and tenant demand and are the factors we weight most heavily in the suburb's investment score.
Fern Bay has a usual resident population of approximately 4,046, compared with a New South Wales suburb median of 5,325 — placing it in the lower half of the state's suburbs by size. Population is the clearest proxy for market depth: more residents mean more transactions and typically a shorter average days-on-market on resale.
Fern Bay sits 125 km straight-line from the Sydney CBD. This is a regional market where CBD distance is only indicative — local industry diversity and commute alternatives matter more.
The most recent census recorded a median weekly rent of $510 in Fern Bay, equating to approximately $26,520/year in gross rental income (state median $430/week). Market rents have typically drifted above the recorded figure — verify against current listings on realestate.com.au and Domain before making an offer.
The median monthly mortgage repayment in Fern Bay is $2,299, or approximately $27,588/year (vs $2,167/month state median). Stress-test your own borrowing at rates 1–2 percentage points above today's to make sure you can still service the loan through an RBA tightening cycle.
A median weekly rent of $510 works out to $2,210/month, covering 96% of the median mortgage repayment of $2,299/month. That leaves a $89/month shortfall (around $1,068/year before tax benefits), so a typical owner-occupier-priced property here is negatively geared. Actual cash flow depends on your deposit, loan terms, ownership costs and marginal tax rate — run the full numbers in our rental yield calculator.
The main risks are a thin buyer pool (4,046 residents), interest-rate sensitivity on the $2,299 median mortgage, below-median household incomes ($74,620 vs $97,552 state median), the broader New South Wales market cycle. Each of these is covered in the Risk Factors section above with suburb-specific numbers rather than generic warnings.
Every number on this page comes from the ABS 2021 Census of Population and Housing, Australia Post postcode reference data, and OpenStreetMap amenity tiles. The investment score, strategy verdicts, and comparison table are computed deterministically from those inputs — no opinion, no estimation. See our full methodology and the data sources and licences for the formulas we use.