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ABS 2021 Census · Updated 21 May 2026
Shoal Bay is a regional centre in New South Wales, Australia, with a population of approximately 1,815, making it a boutique locality. Located approximately 156 km from the Sydney CBD, Shoal Bay is a regional area in New South Wales. The median household income is $52,364 per year.
Shoal Bay's income profile suggests a value-oriented market with competitive purchase prices. Distance from major centres is a consideration, though regional markets can offer higher rental yields.
Official Australia Post postcode for Shoal Bay. A postcode may cover multiple suburbs.
Australia Post Postcode Finder →Usual resident population at the most recent census.
Weekly median rent for occupied homes. Live rental data integration coming soon.
Annual median household income (before tax) across all households.
Straight-line distance from the suburb centroid to the nearest capital city CBD. Actual driving distance will be longer.
Estimated 1 school within or near this suburb.
Find schools near Shoal Bay on My School →Estimated 1 park and green spaces near this suburb.
Monthly median mortgage repayment for households currently paying off a mortgage.
Proportion of separate houses versus units, townhouses, and other home types. Useful for investors assessing rental demand mix.
Shoal Bay is a smaller community of 1,815 — about 34% of the New South Wales suburb median (5,325) — so investors should factor in the narrower buyer pool and longer average time-on-market. Shoal Bay's median household income of $52,364/year is 46% below the New South Wales suburb median ($97,552) — this is an affordability play where returns lean on yield and patient capital growth rather than demographic premium. Rent of $338/week (86% coverage of the $1,700/month median mortgage) leaves a gap of roughly $235/month that a typical investor bridges with negative gearing, depreciation and capital growth. Shoal Bay is 156 km from Sydney, so the local market tracks regional employment and lifestyle drivers more than CBD-driven commuter demand. Only 29% of dwellings are separate houses (vs 76% state median), so this is a unit-heavy market where body-corporate decisions and strata supply meaningfully shape investor returns.
How Shoal Bay stacks up against the median of all New South Wales suburbs in our dataset. Positive values mean Shoal Bay sits above the state median; negative means below.
| Metric | Shoal Bay | NSW median | Δ vs state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 1,815 | 5,325 | -66% |
| Median household income | $52,364/yr | $97,552/yr | -46% |
| Median rent (weekly) | $338 | $430 | -21% |
| Median mortgage (monthly) | $1,700 | $2,167 | -22% |
| Distance to CBD | 156 km | 45 km | +247% |
| Separate houses | 29% | 76% | -47pp |
Pre-inspection briefing for Shoal Bay — every item is derived from public datasets, with full citations in our data sources page.
Limited buy-and-hold upside: a small population of 1,815 means liquidity is thin and capital growth tends to lag the wider New South Wales market over full cycles.
Strong rental coverage: $338/week (~$1,465/month) covers 86% of the $1,700/month median mortgage repayment, so the shortfall sits at just $235/month. Investors targeting positive cash flow should shortlist this suburb.
Only 29% of dwellings are separate houses (vs 76% NSW median) — this is a unit and townhouse market, where cosmetic flips struggle against body-corporate restrictions, thinner after-reno uplift and competing new supply.
Run the numbers on a Shoal Bay property
Scenario comparison, cash flow analysis, tax modelling, and PDF export — all in one place.
Create free account →Capital-growth expectations for Shoal Bay are modest for 2026 — incomes 46% below the NSW median of $97,552 and a population of 1,815 suggest gains will lag headline metro markets. Rental coverage runs at ~86% of the typical mortgage ($1,465/month rent vs $1,700/month repayment), keeping cash flow in positive or near-neutral territory. The EquitySight investment score of 25/100 places Shoal Bay in the lower tier of Australian suburbs we profile, and overall investor sentiment is cautious heading into the second half of 2026.
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Shoal Bay scores 25/100 on our EquitySight investment framework — a weak rating. That score is driven by a population of 1,815, median household income of $52,364/year and median weekly rent of $338. Whether it fits your portfolio depends on whether you are targeting cash flow, capital growth, or a value-add renovation — all three are scored with suburb-specific numbers elsewhere on this page.
The main demand drivers in Shoal Bay are a median household income of $52,364/year, a dwelling mix that is 29% separate houses, roughly 1 schools and 1 parks within the catchment. Together these shape both owner-occupier and tenant demand and are the factors we weight most heavily in the suburb's investment score.
Shoal Bay has a usual resident population of approximately 1,815, compared with a New South Wales suburb median of 5,325 — placing it in the lower half of the state's suburbs by size. Population is the clearest proxy for market depth: more residents mean more transactions and typically a shorter average days-on-market on resale.
Shoal Bay sits 156 km straight-line from the Sydney CBD. This is a regional market where CBD distance is only indicative — local industry diversity and commute alternatives matter more.
The most recent census recorded a median weekly rent of $338 in Shoal Bay, equating to approximately $17,576/year in gross rental income (state median $430/week). Market rents have typically drifted above the recorded figure — verify against current listings on realestate.com.au and Domain before making an offer.
The median monthly mortgage repayment in Shoal Bay is $1,700, or approximately $20,400/year (vs $2,167/month state median). Stress-test your own borrowing at rates 1–2 percentage points above today's to make sure you can still service the loan through an RBA tightening cycle.
A median weekly rent of $338 works out to $1,465/month, covering 86% of the median mortgage repayment of $1,700/month. That leaves a $235/month shortfall (around $2,820/year before tax benefits), so a typical owner-occupier-priced property here is negatively geared. Actual cash flow depends on your deposit, loan terms, ownership costs and marginal tax rate — run the full numbers in our rental yield calculator.
The main risks are a thin buyer pool (1,815 residents), interest-rate sensitivity on the $1,700 median mortgage, below-median household incomes ($52,364 vs $97,552 state median), a unit-heavy dwelling mix (29% houses) where body-corporate costs and apartment supply affect resale, the broader New South Wales market cycle. Each of these is covered in the Risk Factors section above with suburb-specific numbers rather than generic warnings.
Every number on this page comes from the ABS 2021 Census of Population and Housing, Australia Post postcode reference data, and OpenStreetMap amenity tiles. The investment score, strategy verdicts, and comparison table are computed deterministically from those inputs — no opinion, no estimation. See our full methodology and the data sources and licences for the formulas we use.