EquitySight.app
Free full calculator →
EquitySight.app
Free full calculator →
ABS 2021 Census · Updated 21 May 2026
Tumbling Waters is a well-established middle-ring suburb of Darwin, Australia, with a population of approximately 254, making it a boutique locality. Located approximately 34 km from the Darwin CBD, Tumbling Waters is a middle ring area in Northern Territory. The median household income is $93,600 per year.
Strong household incomes in Tumbling Waters underpin solid property demand. While further from the city, improving transport links could boost future demand.
Official Australia Post postcode for Tumbling Waters. A postcode may cover multiple suburbs.
Australia Post Postcode Finder →Usual resident population at the most recent census.
Weekly median rent for occupied homes. Live rental data integration coming soon.
Annual median household income (before tax) across all households.
Straight-line distance from the suburb centroid to the nearest capital city CBD. Actual driving distance will be longer.
Estimated 1 school within or near this suburb.
Find schools near Tumbling Waters on My School →Estimated 1 park and green spaces near this suburb.
Monthly median mortgage repayment for households currently paying off a mortgage.
Proportion of separate houses versus units, townhouses, and other home types. Useful for investors assessing rental demand mix.
Tumbling Waters is a smaller community of 254 — about 8% of the Northern Territory suburb median (3,057) — so investors should factor in the narrower buyer pool and longer average time-on-market. Household income of $93,600/year is 17% below the Northern Territory median of $113,308, typically translating into lower entry prices and a tenant base more sensitive to rent increases. Rent of $350/week (76% coverage of the $2,000/month median mortgage) leaves a gap of roughly $483/month that a typical investor bridges with negative gearing, depreciation and capital growth. At 34 km from Darwin, Tumbling Waters is an outer-metro location where buyers are typically trading commute time for floor space and a lower entry price.
How Tumbling Waters stacks up against the median of all Northern Territory suburbs in our dataset. Positive values mean Tumbling Waters sits above the state median; negative means below.
| Metric | Tumbling Waters | NT median | Δ vs state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 254 | 3,057 | -92% |
| Median household income | $93,600/yr | $113,308/yr | -17% |
| Median rent (weekly) | $350 | $360 | -3% |
| Median mortgage (monthly) | $2,000 | $1,950 | +3% |
| Distance to CBD | 34 km | 15 km | +127% |
| Separate houses | 74% | 68% | +6pp |
Pre-inspection briefing for Tumbling Waters — every item is derived from public datasets, with full citations in our data sources page.
Limited buy-and-hold upside: a small population of 254 means liquidity is thin and capital growth tends to lag the wider Northern Territory market over full cycles.
Moderate rental coverage: rent of $350/week covers 76% of a $2,000/month mortgage, leaving a $483/month gap that an investor bridges with equity, depreciation and tax benefits.
With 74% houses in a 254-person market, renovation margins depend on individual street and aspect rather than any suburb-wide story — do comparable-sales analysis before committing capital.
Run the numbers on a Tumbling Waters property
Scenario comparison, cash flow analysis, tax modelling, and PDF export — all in one place.
Create free account →Capital-growth expectations for Tumbling Waters are modest for 2026 — incomes 17% below the NT median of $113,308 and a population of 254 suggest gains will lag headline metro markets. Rental coverage runs at ~76% of the typical mortgage ($1,517/month rent vs $2,000/month repayment), leaving a manageable top-up for most investors. The EquitySight investment score of 56/100 places Tumbling Waters in the mid tier of Australian suburbs we profile, and overall investor sentiment is balanced heading into the second half of 2026.
Lived in Tumbling Waters? Help other investors with an honest 100-word review. Sign-in required; all reviews are manually moderated before they appear.
Tumbling Waters scores 56/100 on our EquitySight investment framework — a moderate rating. That score is driven by a population of 254, median household income of $93,600/year and median weekly rent of $350. Whether it fits your portfolio depends on whether you are targeting cash flow, capital growth, or a value-add renovation — all three are scored with suburb-specific numbers elsewhere on this page.
The main demand drivers in Tumbling Waters are a median household income of $93,600/year, a dwelling mix that is 74% separate houses, roughly 1 schools and 1 parks within the catchment. Together these shape both owner-occupier and tenant demand and are the factors we weight most heavily in the suburb's investment score.
Tumbling Waters has a usual resident population of approximately 254, compared with a Northern Territory suburb median of 3,057 — placing it in the lower half of the state's suburbs by size. Population is the clearest proxy for market depth: more residents mean more transactions and typically a shorter average days-on-market on resale.
Tumbling Waters sits 34 km straight-line from the Darwin CBD. This is an outer-metro location; local employment and infrastructure announcements tend to move prices more than CBD connectivity alone.
The most recent census recorded a median weekly rent of $350 in Tumbling Waters, equating to approximately $18,200/year in gross rental income (state median $360/week). Market rents have typically drifted above the recorded figure — verify against current listings on realestate.com.au and Domain before making an offer.
The median monthly mortgage repayment in Tumbling Waters is $2,000, or approximately $24,000/year (vs $1,950/month state median). Stress-test your own borrowing at rates 1–2 percentage points above today's to make sure you can still service the loan through an RBA tightening cycle.
A median weekly rent of $350 works out to $1,517/month, covering 76% of the median mortgage repayment of $2,000/month. That leaves a $483/month shortfall (around $5,796/year before tax benefits), so a typical owner-occupier-priced property here is negatively geared. Actual cash flow depends on your deposit, loan terms, ownership costs and marginal tax rate — run the full numbers in our rental yield calculator.
The main risks are a thin buyer pool (254 residents), interest-rate sensitivity on the $2,000 median mortgage, below-median household incomes ($93,600 vs $113,308 state median), the broader Northern Territory market cycle. Each of these is covered in the Risk Factors section above with suburb-specific numbers rather than generic warnings.
Every number on this page comes from the ABS 2021 Census of Population and Housing, Australia Post postcode reference data, and OpenStreetMap amenity tiles. The investment score, strategy verdicts, and comparison table are computed deterministically from those inputs — no opinion, no estimation. See our full methodology and the data sources and licences for the formulas we use.