EquitySight.app
Free full calculator →
EquitySight.app
Free full calculator →
ABS 2021 Census · Updated 21 May 2026
Cairnlea is a well-established middle-ring suburb of Melbourne, Australia, with a population of approximately 10,038, making it a smaller community. Located approximately 17 km from the Melbourne CBD, Cairnlea is a middle ring area in Victoria. The median household income is $107,224 per year.
Above-average earnings in Cairnlea support sustained property values.
Official Australia Post postcode for Cairnlea. A postcode may cover multiple suburbs.
Australia Post Postcode Finder →Usual resident population at the most recent census.
Weekly median rent for occupied homes. Live rental data integration coming soon.
Annual median household income (before tax) across all households.
Straight-line distance from the suburb centroid to the nearest capital city CBD. Actual driving distance will be longer.
Estimated 3 schools within or near this suburb.
Find schools near Cairnlea on My School →Estimated 4 parks and green spaces near this suburb.
Monthly median mortgage repayment for households currently paying off a mortgage.
Proportion of separate houses versus units, townhouses, and other home types. Useful for investors assessing rental demand mix.
Cairnlea's population of 10,038 sits 35% above the Victoria suburb median of 7,416, giving it a wider tenant and buyer catchment than the average VIC locality. Households here earn $107,224/year on average — 13% above the VIC suburb median of $95,160 — a modest premium that supports resilient owner-occupier demand. Median weekly rent of $400 equates to $1,733/month — about 92% of the median mortgage repayment of $1,883/month — meaning rental income covers most of a typical owner's repayment and this is a genuine cash-flow suburb before tax benefits. 17 km from Melbourne places Cairnlea in the middle commuter belt, close enough for daily trips by car or rail but at a materially lower price point than inner suburbs.
This suburb suits long-term investors looking for a balance of rental yield and capital growth. Schools and transport underpin family demand. Local rents consume roughly 19% of household income — a useful sanity check on tenant affordability.
How Cairnlea stacks up against the median of all Victoria suburbs in our dataset. Positive values mean Cairnlea sits above the state median; negative means below.
| Metric | Cairnlea | VIC median | Δ vs state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 10,038 | 7,416 | +35% |
| Median household income | $107,224/yr | $95,160/yr | +13% |
| Median rent (weekly) | $400 | $380 | +5% |
| Median mortgage (monthly) | $1,883 | $1,950 | -3% |
| Distance to CBD | 17 km | 32 km | -47% |
| Separate houses | 85% | 78% | +7pp |
Pre-inspection briefing for Cairnlea — every item is derived from public datasets, with full citations in our data sources page.
Solid buy-and-hold profile: a population of 10,038 and household income close to the VIC median ($107,224 vs $95,160) give the market enough depth for patient capital growth without the premium entry price of inner suburbs.
Strong rental coverage: $400/week (~$1,733/month) covers 92% of the $1,883/month median mortgage repayment, so the shortfall sits at just $150/month. Investors targeting positive cash flow should shortlist this suburb.
With 85% houses in a 10,038-person market, renovation margins depend on individual street and aspect rather than any suburb-wide story — do comparable-sales analysis before committing capital.
Run the numbers on a Cairnlea property
Scenario comparison, cash flow analysis, tax modelling, and PDF export — all in one place.
Create free account →Property values in Cairnlea should track the wider Victoria market through 2026, with the $107,224/year median household income (13% above the $95,160 state median) keeping the suburb firmly mid-pack. Rental coverage runs at ~92% of the typical mortgage ($1,733/month rent vs $1,883/month repayment), keeping cash flow in positive or near-neutral territory. The EquitySight investment score of 74/100 places Cairnlea in the upper-middle tier of Australian suburbs we profile, and overall investor sentiment is constructive heading into the second half of 2026.
Lived in Cairnlea? Help other investors with an honest 100-word review. Sign-in required; all reviews are manually moderated before they appear.
Cairnlea scores 74/100 on our EquitySight investment framework — a good rating. That score is driven by a population of 10,038, median household income of $107,224/year and median weekly rent of $400. Whether it fits your portfolio depends on whether you are targeting cash flow, capital growth, or a value-add renovation — all three are scored with suburb-specific numbers elsewhere on this page.
The main demand drivers in Cairnlea are proximity to Melbourne (17 km), an above-state-median household income of $107,224/year, a dwelling mix that is 85% separate houses, roughly 3 schools and 4 parks within the catchment. Together these shape both owner-occupier and tenant demand and are the factors we weight most heavily in the suburb's investment score.
Cairnlea has a usual resident population of approximately 10,038, compared with a Victoria suburb median of 7,416 — placing it in the upper half of the state's suburbs by size. Population is the clearest proxy for market depth: more residents mean more transactions and typically a shorter average days-on-market on resale.
Cairnlea sits 17 km straight-line from the Melbourne CBD. This is comfortable commuter territory, with reasonable rail and road access to the city.
The most recent census recorded a median weekly rent of $400 in Cairnlea, equating to approximately $20,800/year in gross rental income (state median $380/week). Market rents have typically drifted above the recorded figure — verify against current listings on realestate.com.au and Domain before making an offer.
The median monthly mortgage repayment in Cairnlea is $1,883, or approximately $22,596/year (vs $1,950/month state median). Stress-test your own borrowing at rates 1–2 percentage points above today's to make sure you can still service the loan through an RBA tightening cycle.
A median weekly rent of $400 works out to $1,733/month, covering 92% of the median mortgage repayment of $1,883/month. That leaves a $150/month shortfall (around $1,800/year before tax benefits), so a typical owner-occupier-priced property here is negatively geared. Actual cash flow depends on your deposit, loan terms, ownership costs and marginal tax rate — run the full numbers in our rental yield calculator.
The main risks are interest-rate sensitivity on the $1,883 median mortgage, the broader Victoria market cycle. Each of these is covered in the Risk Factors section above with suburb-specific numbers rather than generic warnings.
Every number on this page comes from the ABS 2021 Census of Population and Housing, Australia Post postcode reference data, and OpenStreetMap amenity tiles. The investment score, strategy verdicts, and comparison table are computed deterministically from those inputs — no opinion, no estimation. See our full methodology and the data sources and licences for the formulas we use.