Suburb Overview
Cairnlea is a well-established middle-ring suburb of Melbourne, Australia, with a population of approximately 10,038, making it a smaller community. Located approximately 17 km from the Melbourne CBD, Cairnlea is a middle ring area in Victoria. The median household income is $107,224 per year.
Location
Key Indicators
Postcode
3023
Postcode for Cairnlea, from a community postcode dataset cross-checked against Australia Post. A postcode may cover multiple suburbs.
Australia Post Postcode Finder →
Population
10,038
Usual resident population at the most recent census.
Median weekly rent
$400/wk
Median weekly rent recorded at the 2021 Census — market rents have risen since, so treat this as a dated baseline, not a current figure.
Median household income
$107,224
Annual median household income (before tax) across all households.
Distance to CBD
17 km
Straight-line distance from the suburb centroid to the nearest capital city CBD. Actual driving distance will be longer.
Sale prices & yield
Median house price
$961,500
Median house sale price — as at 2025 (preliminary), Valuer-General Victoria (CC BY 4.0).
Median unit price
$404,500
Median unit sale price — as at 2025 (preliminary), Valuer-General Victoria (CC BY 4.0).
Housing
Median monthly mortgage
$1,883/mo
Monthly median mortgage repayment for households currently paying off a mortgage.
Home type
85% houses
Proportion of separate houses versus units, townhouses, and other home types. Useful for investors assessing rental demand mix.
Why People Like Living in Cairnlea
- Middle-ring location about 17 km from Melbourne — balance of commute and affordability.
- Several schools in the area (around 3), attractive for families.
- Local parks and reserves (around 4) within easy reach.
- Reasonable transport access — car-friendly with some public transport options.
- Predominantly separate houses (85%) — suburban lifestyle with more land.
Who Cairnlea Suits
Pros and Cons
Pros
- Rent sits within an affordable share of local incomes, supporting tenant demand.
- Mortgage costs are lower than the Victoria median, improving cash-flow margins.
- Access to several schools nearby (around 3).
- Local parks and reserves (around 4) add to liveability.
- Solid transport links into employment hubs.
Cons
- Traffic can build during peak hours, especially on arterial roads.
- Prices may rise further as demand continues.
Investment Insight
Cairnlea's population of 10,038 sits 35% above the Victoria suburb median of 7,416, giving it a wider tenant and buyer catchment than the average VIC locality. Households here earn $107,224/year on average — 13% above the VIC suburb median of $95,160 — a modest premium that supports resilient owner-occupier demand. At the 2021 Census, median weekly rent of $400 equated to $1,733/month — about 92% of the then-median mortgage repayment of $1,883/month. Both figures have moved substantially since 2021, so treat the ratio as a historical signal that this suburb leaned cash-flow-friendly, and verify against current listings and rates. 17 km from Melbourne places Cairnlea in the middle commuter belt, close enough for daily trips by car or rail but at a materially lower price point than inner suburbs.
Investment Tip
This suburb suits long-term investors looking for a balance of rental yield and capital growth. Schools and transport underpin family demand. At the 2021 Census, local rents consumed roughly 19% of household income — a dated but useful sanity check on tenant affordability.
Cairnlea vs Victoria Median
How Cairnlea stacks up against the median of all Victoria suburbs in our dataset. Positive values mean Cairnlea sits above the state median; negative means below.
| Metric | Cairnlea | VIC median | Δ vs state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 10,038 | 7,416 | +35% |
| Median household income | $107,224/yr | $95,160/yr | +13% |
| Median rent (weekly, 2021 Census) | $400 | $380 | +5% |
| Median mortgage (monthly, 2021 Census) | $1,883 | $1,950 | -3% |
| Distance to CBD | 17 km | 32 km | -47% |
| Separate houses | 85% | 78% | +7pp |
Investor Checklist
Pre-inspection briefing for Cairnlea — every item is derived from public datasets, with full citations in our data sources page.
- Market depth: 10,038 residents — 135% of the VIC suburb median (7,416).
- Purchasing power: median household income $107,224/year (+13% vs Victoria suburb median of $95,160).
- Cash-flow coverage (2021 Census): $400/week rent (≈ $1,733/month) covered ~92% of the $1,883/month median mortgage at the 2021 Census — verify against current rents and rates.
- CBD access: 17 km straight-line from Melbourne (state suburb median 32 km).
- Dwelling mix: 85% separate houses — house-dominant market (vs 78% state median).
- Rate stress-test: budget ~$188/month extra for a 1-percentage-point RBA rate rise on top of the $1,883/month median repayment.
- Tenant rent burden: 19% of the median household income is spent on rent — comfortably affordable.
Investment Strategy
Solid buy-and-hold profile: a population of 10,038 and household income close to the VIC median ($107,224 vs $95,160) give the market enough depth for patient capital growth without the premium entry price of inner suburbs.
Strong rental coverage at the 2021 Census: $400/week (~$1,733/month) covered 92% of the $1,883/month median mortgage, a shortfall of just $150/month. Both rents and repayments have moved since 2021 — verify current figures, though this suburb has historically leaned cash-flow-friendly.
With 85% houses in a 10,038-person market, renovation margins depend on individual street and aspect rather than any suburb-wide story — do comparable-sales analysis before committing capital.
Risk Factors
- Interest-rate sensitivity: the $1,883/month median mortgage in Cairnlea means a 1-percentage-point RBA rate rise could add roughly $188/month to repayments, reducing buyer borrowing capacity and cooling prices.
- House-dominant stock: 85% of dwellings are separate houses, so value is concentrated in land — weather events, insurance repricing and land-tax changes hit investors here more directly than in a unit-heavy suburb.
- Regulatory risk: changes to Australian tax settings (negative gearing, CGT discount, foreign-buyer surcharges, land-tax thresholds) could reshape after-tax returns in Cairnlea regardless of local market conditions.
- Market cycle risk: property markets are cyclical, so stress-test your projections in Cairnlea with a 10–15% price pullback scenario before committing capital — returns to date are not a guarantee of future performance.
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Property values in Cairnlea should track the wider Victoria market through 2026, with the $107,224/year median household income (13% above the $95,160 state median) keeping the suburb firmly mid-pack. At the 2021 Census, rental coverage ran at ~92% of the typical mortgage ($1,733/month rent vs $1,883/month repayment), keeping cash flow in positive or near-neutral territory. Verify against current rents and rates. Overall investor sentiment for Cairnlea is constructive heading into the second half of 2026, based on its income, rent and mortgage profile relative to the Victoria median.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Cairnlea a good suburb for investment?
Whether Cairnlea suits you depends on your strategy, but the fundamentals are concrete: a population of 10,038, a median household income of $107,224/year and median weekly rent of $400. Weigh those against your goal — cash flow, capital growth, or a value-add renovation — each of which we break down with suburb-specific ABS numbers elsewhere on this page.
What drives property demand in Cairnlea?
The main demand drivers in Cairnlea are proximity to Melbourne (17 km), an above-state-median household income of $107,224/year, a dwelling mix that is 85% separate houses. Together these shape both owner-occupier and tenant demand.
What is the population of Cairnlea?
Cairnlea has a usual resident population of approximately 10,038, compared with a Victoria suburb median of 7,416 — placing it in the upper half of the state's suburbs by size. Population is the clearest proxy for market depth: more residents mean more transactions and typically a shorter average days-on-market on resale.
How far is Cairnlea from the Melbourne CBD?
Cairnlea sits 17 km straight-line from the Melbourne CBD. This is comfortable commuter territory, with reasonable rail and road access to the city.
What is the median rent in Cairnlea?
The most recent census recorded a median weekly rent of $400 in Cairnlea, equating to approximately $20,800/year in gross rental income (state median $380/week). Market rents have typically drifted above the recorded figure — verify against current listings on realestate.com.au and Domain before making an offer.
What is the typical mortgage repayment in Cairnlea?
The median monthly mortgage repayment in Cairnlea is $1,883, or approximately $22,596/year (vs $1,950/month state median). Stress-test your own borrowing at rates 1–2 percentage points above today's to make sure you can still service the loan through an RBA tightening cycle.
Is Cairnlea cash-flow positive for investors?
A median weekly rent of $400 works out to $1,733/month, covering 92% of the median mortgage repayment of $1,883/month. That leaves a $150/month shortfall (around $1,800/year before tax benefits), so a typical owner-occupier-priced property here is negatively geared. Actual cash flow depends on your deposit, loan terms, ownership costs and marginal tax rate — run the full numbers in our rental yield calculator.
What are the main risks of investing in Cairnlea?
The main risks are interest-rate sensitivity on the $1,883 median mortgage, the broader Victoria market cycle. Each of these is covered in the Risk Factors section above with suburb-specific numbers rather than generic warnings.
How we built this Cairnlea profile
The population, postcode, median household income, and dwelling mix on this page are real figures from the ABS 2021 Census (income is the ABS median weekly household income annualised) and Australia Post. Distance to the CBD is calculated from the suburb's ABS centroid. The Census median rent and mortgage repayment are 2021 figures and are clearly labelled as such wherever they appear — they are five years old and have moved substantially since. We do not publish an investment score or school/park counts for this suburb. See our methodology and data sources for exactly what's measured and what's estimated.