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ABS 2021 Census · Updated 21 May 2026
Carrum Downs is an outer-metropolitan suburb of Melbourne, Australia, with a population of approximately 21,976, making it a sizeable community. Located approximately 36 km from the Melbourne CBD, Carrum Downs is a outer metro area in Victoria. The median household income is $86,216 per year.
Household incomes in Carrum Downs sit in a comfortable mid-range for the Victoria market. While further from the city, improving transport links could boost future demand.
Official Australia Post postcode for Carrum Downs. A postcode may cover multiple suburbs.
Australia Post Postcode Finder →Usual resident population at the most recent census.
Weekly median rent for occupied homes. Live rental data integration coming soon.
Annual median household income (before tax) across all households.
Straight-line distance from the suburb centroid to the nearest capital city CBD. Actual driving distance will be longer.
Estimated 5 schools within or near this suburb.
Find schools near Carrum Downs on My School →Estimated 9 parks and green spaces near this suburb.
Monthly median mortgage repayment for households currently paying off a mortgage.
Proportion of separate houses versus units, townhouses, and other home types. Useful for investors assessing rental demand mix.
With 21,976 residents, Carrum Downs is one of Victoria's more populous suburbs — roughly 3.0× the state median of 7,416 — giving it a deep buyer and tenant pool that typically supports higher transaction volumes and shorter average days on market. Household income of $86,216/year is 9% below the Victoria median of $95,160, typically translating into lower entry prices and a tenant base more sensitive to rent increases. Median weekly rent of $370 equates to $1,603/month — about 92% of the median mortgage repayment of $1,733/month — meaning rental income covers most of a typical owner's repayment and this is a genuine cash-flow suburb before tax benefits. At 36 km from Melbourne, Carrum Downs is an outer-metro location where buyers are typically trading commute time for floor space and a lower entry price.
This suburb suits long-term investors due to steady population growth and affordable entry prices. Look for established streets close to schools and shops rather than raw new-estate land. Local rents consume roughly 22% of household income — a useful sanity check on tenant affordability.
How Carrum Downs stacks up against the median of all Victoria suburbs in our dataset. Positive values mean Carrum Downs sits above the state median; negative means below.
| Metric | Carrum Downs | VIC median | Δ vs state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 21,976 | 7,416 | +196% |
| Median household income | $86,216/yr | $95,160/yr | -9% |
| Median rent (weekly) | $370 | $380 | -3% |
| Median mortgage (monthly) | $1,733 | $1,950 | -11% |
| Distance to CBD | 36 km | 32 km | +13% |
| Separate houses | 76% | 78% | -2pp |
Pre-inspection briefing for Carrum Downs — every item is derived from public datasets, with full citations in our data sources page.
Moderate buy-and-hold potential: Carrum Downs's 21,976-person market and $86,216 median household income work for investors who are selective on street location and property quality rather than counting on a suburb-wide rerating.
Strong rental coverage: $370/week (~$1,603/month) covers 92% of the $1,733/month median mortgage repayment, so the shortfall sits at just $130/month. Investors targeting positive cash flow should shortlist this suburb.
With 76% houses in a 21,976-person market, renovation margins depend on individual street and aspect rather than any suburb-wide story — do comparable-sales analysis before committing capital.
Run the numbers on a Carrum Downs property
Scenario comparison, cash flow analysis, tax modelling, and PDF export — all in one place.
Create free account →Property values in Carrum Downs should track the wider Victoria market through 2026, with the $86,216/year median household income (9% below the $95,160 state median) keeping the suburb firmly mid-pack. Rental coverage runs at ~92% of the typical mortgage ($1,603/month rent vs $1,733/month repayment), keeping cash flow in positive or near-neutral territory. The EquitySight investment score of 57/100 places Carrum Downs in the mid tier of Australian suburbs we profile, and overall investor sentiment is balanced heading into the second half of 2026.
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Carrum Downs scores 57/100 on our EquitySight investment framework — a moderate rating. That score is driven by a population of 21,976, median household income of $86,216/year and median weekly rent of $370. Whether it fits your portfolio depends on whether you are targeting cash flow, capital growth, or a value-add renovation — all three are scored with suburb-specific numbers elsewhere on this page.
The main demand drivers in Carrum Downs are a median household income of $86,216/year, a dwelling mix that is 76% separate houses, roughly 5 schools and 9 parks within the catchment. Together these shape both owner-occupier and tenant demand and are the factors we weight most heavily in the suburb's investment score.
Carrum Downs has a usual resident population of approximately 21,976, compared with a Victoria suburb median of 7,416 — placing it in the upper half of the state's suburbs by size. Population is the clearest proxy for market depth: more residents mean more transactions and typically a shorter average days-on-market on resale.
Carrum Downs sits 36 km straight-line from the Melbourne CBD. This is an outer-metro location; local employment and infrastructure announcements tend to move prices more than CBD connectivity alone.
The most recent census recorded a median weekly rent of $370 in Carrum Downs, equating to approximately $19,240/year in gross rental income (state median $380/week). Market rents have typically drifted above the recorded figure — verify against current listings on realestate.com.au and Domain before making an offer.
The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carrum Downs is $1,733, or approximately $20,796/year (vs $1,950/month state median). Stress-test your own borrowing at rates 1–2 percentage points above today's to make sure you can still service the loan through an RBA tightening cycle.
A median weekly rent of $370 works out to $1,603/month, covering 92% of the median mortgage repayment of $1,733/month. That leaves a $130/month shortfall (around $1,560/year before tax benefits), so a typical owner-occupier-priced property here is negatively geared. Actual cash flow depends on your deposit, loan terms, ownership costs and marginal tax rate — run the full numbers in our rental yield calculator.
The main risks are interest-rate sensitivity on the $1,733 median mortgage, the broader Victoria market cycle. Each of these is covered in the Risk Factors section above with suburb-specific numbers rather than generic warnings.
Every number on this page comes from the ABS 2021 Census of Population and Housing, Australia Post postcode reference data, and OpenStreetMap amenity tiles. The investment score, strategy verdicts, and comparison table are computed deterministically from those inputs — no opinion, no estimation. See our full methodology and the data sources and licences for the formulas we use.