Suburb Overview
Pakenham Upper is a regional centre in Victoria, Australia, with a population of approximately 1,196, making it a boutique locality. Located approximately 52 km from the Melbourne CBD, Pakenham Upper is a regional area in Victoria. The median household income is $134,836 per year.
Location
Key Indicators
Postcode
3810
Postcode for Pakenham Upper, from a community postcode dataset cross-checked against Australia Post. A postcode may cover multiple suburbs.
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Population
1,196
Usual resident population at the most recent census.
Median weekly rent
$255/wk
Median weekly rent recorded at the 2021 Census — market rents have risen since, so treat this as a dated baseline, not a current figure.
Median household income
$134,836
Annual median household income (before tax) across all households.
Distance to CBD
52 km
Straight-line distance from the suburb centroid to the nearest capital city CBD. Actual driving distance will be longer.
Housing
Median monthly mortgage
$2,400/mo
Monthly median mortgage repayment for households currently paying off a mortgage.
Home type
96% houses
Proportion of separate houses versus units, townhouses, and other home types. Useful for investors assessing rental demand mix.
Investment Insight
Pakenham Upper is a smaller community of 1,196 — about 16% of the Victoria suburb median (7,416) — so investors should factor in the narrower buyer pool and longer average time-on-market. Median household income of $134,836/year runs 42% above the Victoria suburb median of $95,160, indicating strong purchasing power and the type of demographic profile that tends to sustain premium property prices through market cycles. At the 2021 Census, weekly rent of $255 covered just 46% of the $2,400/month median mortgage recorded at the same Census, a $1,295/month gap at the time — verify current rents and repayments before pursuing this suburb, and only with a clear capital-growth thesis. Pakenham Upper is 52 km from Melbourne, so the local market tracks regional employment and lifestyle drivers more than CBD-driven commuter demand. Separate houses make up 96% of dwellings — 18 percentage points above the Victoria median of 78% — pointing to a family-oriented, land-rich market where value is concentrated in the underlying block.
Pakenham Upper vs Victoria Median
How Pakenham Upper stacks up against the median of all Victoria suburbs in our dataset. Positive values mean Pakenham Upper sits above the state median; negative means below.
| Metric | Pakenham Upper | VIC median | Δ vs state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 1,196 | 7,416 | -84% |
| Median household income | $134,836/yr | $95,160/yr | +42% |
| Median rent (weekly, 2021 Census) | $255 | $380 | -33% |
| Median mortgage (monthly, 2021 Census) | $2,400 | $1,950 | +23% |
| Distance to CBD | 52 km | 32 km | +63% |
| Separate houses | 96% | 78% | +18pp |
Investor Checklist
Pre-inspection briefing for Pakenham Upper — every item is derived from public datasets, with full citations in our data sources page.
- Market depth: 1,196 residents — 16% of the VIC suburb median (7,416).
- Purchasing power: median household income $134,836/year (+42% vs Victoria suburb median of $95,160).
- Cash-flow coverage (2021 Census): $255/week rent (≈ $1,105/month) covered ~46% of the $2,400/month median mortgage at the 2021 Census — verify against current rents and rates.
- CBD access: 52 km straight-line from Melbourne (state suburb median 32 km).
- Dwelling mix: 96% separate houses — house-dominant market (vs 78% state median).
- Rate stress-test: budget ~$240/month extra for a 1-percentage-point RBA rate rise on top of the $2,400/month median repayment.
- Tenant rent burden: 10% of the median household income is spent on rent — comfortably affordable.
Investment Strategy
Limited buy-and-hold upside: a small population of 1,196 means liquidity is thin and capital growth tends to lag the wider Victoria market over full cycles.
Weak cash flow at the 2021 Census: $255/week rent covered only 46% of the $2,400/month median mortgage — a $1,295/month gap funded from other income. On the Census snapshot this reads as a capital-growth play, not a yield play; verify current rents before deciding.
With 96% houses in a 1,196-person market, renovation margins depend on individual street and aspect rather than any suburb-wide story — do comparable-sales analysis before committing capital.
Risk Factors
- Interest-rate sensitivity: the $2,400/month median mortgage in Pakenham Upper means a 1-percentage-point RBA rate rise could add roughly $240/month to repayments, reducing buyer borrowing capacity and cooling prices.
- Premium-pricing risk: incomes 42% above the Victoria median ($134,836 vs $95,160) correlate with elevated purchase prices and compressed gross yields — enter only with a clear capital-growth thesis and a comfortable deposit.
- Liquidity risk: with 1,196 residents, Pakenham Upper has a thinner pool of buyers and tenants than larger suburbs. Expect longer days-on-market on resale and budget for potential vacancy gaps between tenancies.
- Commute distance: at 52 km from the nearest CBD, Pakenham Upper depends on local employment rather than city-driven commuter demand, which amplifies the market's sensitivity to regional industry slowdowns.
- House-dominant stock: 96% of dwellings are separate houses, so value is concentrated in land — weather events, insurance repricing and land-tax changes hit investors here more directly than in a unit-heavy suburb.
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Start your first-home journey →2026 Outlook
Capital-growth expectations for Pakenham Upper are modest for 2026 — incomes 42% above the VIC median of $95,160 and a population of 1,196 suggest gains will lag headline metro markets. At the 2021 Census, rental coverage ran at ~46% of the typical mortgage ($1,105/month rent vs $2,400/month repayment), meaning investors will rely on capital growth rather than yield. Verify against current rents and rates. Overall investor sentiment for Pakenham Upper is balanced heading into the second half of 2026, based on its income, rent and mortgage profile relative to the Victoria median.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Pakenham Upper a good suburb for investment?
Whether Pakenham Upper suits you depends on your strategy, but the fundamentals are concrete: a population of 1,196, a median household income of $134,836/year and median weekly rent of $255. Weigh those against your goal — cash flow, capital growth, or a value-add renovation — each of which we break down with suburb-specific ABS numbers elsewhere on this page.
What drives property demand in Pakenham Upper?
The main demand drivers in Pakenham Upper are an above-state-median household income of $134,836/year, a dwelling mix that is 96% separate houses. Together these shape both owner-occupier and tenant demand.
What is the population of Pakenham Upper?
Pakenham Upper has a usual resident population of approximately 1,196, compared with a Victoria suburb median of 7,416 — placing it in the lower half of the state's suburbs by size. Population is the clearest proxy for market depth: more residents mean more transactions and typically a shorter average days-on-market on resale.
How far is Pakenham Upper from the Melbourne CBD?
Pakenham Upper sits 52 km straight-line from the Melbourne CBD. This is a regional market where CBD distance is only indicative — local industry diversity and commute alternatives matter more.
What is the median rent in Pakenham Upper?
The most recent census recorded a median weekly rent of $255 in Pakenham Upper, equating to approximately $13,260/year in gross rental income (state median $380/week). Market rents have typically drifted above the recorded figure — verify against current listings on realestate.com.au and Domain before making an offer.
What is the typical mortgage repayment in Pakenham Upper?
The median monthly mortgage repayment in Pakenham Upper is $2,400, or approximately $28,800/year (vs $1,950/month state median). Stress-test your own borrowing at rates 1–2 percentage points above today's to make sure you can still service the loan through an RBA tightening cycle.
Is Pakenham Upper cash-flow positive for investors?
A median weekly rent of $255 works out to $1,105/month, covering 46% of the median mortgage repayment of $2,400/month. That leaves a $1,295/month shortfall (around $15,540/year before tax benefits), so a typical owner-occupier-priced property here is negatively geared. Actual cash flow depends on your deposit, loan terms, ownership costs and marginal tax rate — run the full numbers in our rental yield calculator.
What are the main risks of investing in Pakenham Upper?
The main risks are a thin buyer pool (1,196 residents), interest-rate sensitivity on the $2,400 median mortgage, the broader Victoria market cycle. Each of these is covered in the Risk Factors section above with suburb-specific numbers rather than generic warnings.
How we built this Pakenham Upper profile
The population, postcode, median household income, and dwelling mix on this page are real figures from the ABS 2021 Census (income is the ABS median weekly household income annualised) and Australia Post. Distance to the CBD is calculated from the suburb's ABS centroid. The Census median rent and mortgage repayment are 2021 figures and are clearly labelled as such wherever they appear — they are five years old and have moved substantially since. We do not publish an investment score or school/park counts for this suburb. See our methodology and data sources for exactly what's measured and what's estimated.